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• Posted April 11, 2026

U.S. States Warm, But Not As Expected

Hotter highs and warmer lows are just what you’d expect with global warming, but how climate change is playing out in your backyard depends on where you live.

Writing in the journal PLOS Climate, researchers found that warming patterns vary by region.

Out West, folks are sweating through more extreme heat, while Northerners aren’t seeing the cold extremes they used to.

And that, researchers said, means policymakers should think locally when they’re weighing how to respond to climate change.

With the exception of Florida, states in the Southern climate zone have "experienced the smallest temperature increase in recent years," a team headed by María Dolores Gadea Rivas of the University of Zaragoza, Spain found.

These states — dubbed the "Warming Hole" because they are one of the few places worldwide displaying an overall cooling trend — include Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas.

The picture is decidedly different out West.

California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming are seeing higher annual temperature extremes, the study found.

That dovetails with warmer low temperatures across many northern states, including Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska and the Dakotas.

In all, 55% of states — 27 in total — recorded higher average temperatures between 1950 and 2021. Meanwhile, 84% (41 states) had increases in at least part of their temperature range.

For some, that translated to hotter daytime highs. For others, it meant milder lows.

The study not only analyzed averages but also more than 26,000 daily temperature readings for all 48 contiguous U.S. states.

Researchers suggested that the method could be used to study other climate-related changes, including rising sea levels and precipitation patterns.

For now, they said the new temperature findings could have significant implications for public policy. 

Changes in high and low temperatures can strain public health systems, affect agriculture and how communities perceive climate risks, they noted.

These factors all help shape local climate policies.

"We show that most U.S. states are warming in specific parts of the temperature distribution, even when average warming is not statistically significant," the researchers wrote. "This reveals strong regional inequalities in how climate change is experienced across the United States."

More information

Learn more about global warming at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

SOURCES: PLOS, news release, April 4, 2026; PLOS Climate, Feb. 4, 2026